JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still thinks there’s about a 35-40% chance of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy, with a recession being the most likely scenario.
When CNBC’s Leslie Picker asked Dimon whether his view had changed since February that the market was too optimistic about the risk of a recession, he said the chances were “about the same” as his previous prediction.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always noted that geopolitics, housing, deficits, spending, quantitative tightening, elections — all of these things will cause volatility in the markets.”
Dimon, head of the largest U.S. bank by assets and one of Wall Street’s most respected voices, has warned of an economic “hurricane” after 2022. But the economy has held up better than he expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that the U.S. is not currently in a recession, despite rising credit card defaults.
Dimon added that he was “somewhat skeptical” that future spending on the green economy and the military would enable the Fed to drive inflation down to its 2% target.
“There’s always a wide range of outcomes,” Dimon said. “I’m totally optimistic that even if we get into a mild recession or even a deeper recession, we’ll be OK. Of course, I have a lot of sympathy for people who have lost their jobs. I don’t want a hard landing.”
