Rajesh Palviya
Head of Technical Derivatives at Axis Securities
Where is Nifty headed?
The index has formed a long bullish candle on the weekly chart and has incorporated the previous weekly candle to close above the previous week’s high, indicating a positive trend. The chart pattern indicates that if Nifty sustains above 24,200, buying will be seen and the index is likely to head towards 24,500-24,600 levels. Conversely, if the index sinks below 23,900, selling will be seen and the index is likely to head towards 23,800-23,600 levels. What should investors do?
Stocks showing bullish signs include Reliance, ICICI Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Grasim, Praj Industries, Biocon, Apollo Tyres, Tata Motors and BEL. Consider a moderately bullish strategy using bull call spread for July 4 weekly expiry. This involves buying one lot of 24,100 strike calls at a premium of Rs 134 and selling one lot of 24,400 strike calls at a premium of Rs 35. If Nifty closes above 24,199 at expiry, this strategy will start earning profits. There is limited risk here but so are the potential gains.
Apurva Shah
Head of Market Research, Samco Securities
Where will the Nifty head next week?
Nifty breached the all-time high and psychological milestone of 24,000 last week. With this, the index has closed at its all-time high for the 24th time in 2024. Bulls have a firm grip on the index and don’t seem to be in any mood to let go in July, which is the best month for the market. In nine of the last 10 years, the index has closed in the positive with an average gain of 3.3%, which is the highest among all months. The index has broken out of the expanding megaphone pattern, indicating that a high of 24,500 could arrive in July. However, in the short term, the index may stabilise and give up some of the recent gains and fall to 23,762, which is the 50% retracement support of the low of 23,350 to the high of 24,174.
What should investors do?
Investors should adopt a buy-at-low approach. They can buy at 23,762-23,664 and place a stop loss at 23,500 with a target of 24,500. Preference should be given to mid-cap stocks like KPIT Tech, Gulf Oil Lubricants, CE Info Systems and Mahindra Logistics for trading.
Rahul Sharma
Head of Technology and Derivatives Research, JM Financial Services
Where will the Nifty head this week?
Nifty formed a major bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart and crossed the 24,000 level to end the week and month on a bullish note. Nifty options chain suggests that open interest is concentrated in 24,000 puts and 24,500 calls, while the put-call ratio, which was overheated at 1.49 on Friday, has settled at 1.17. However, caution is advised with fresh longs as risk-reward is diminishing at higher levels. If the current momentum fades in the coming days, Nifty is expected to enter a roughly two-month consolidation period. Support levels are 23,985 and 23,665, while resistance is at 24,175 and 24,500.
What should investors do?
Investors are advised to start booking profits in sectors where the market has performed well recently, such as private sector banks. State-run companies and pharmaceutical companies have performed well. Buy Cipla shares at Rs 1,480. The stock has gained a strong support area at Rs 1,465. Buy Tata Motors shares at Rs 990. Stop loss is at Rs 948.
