NOAA predicts 4-7 major hurricanes in 2024. How to prepare your home

Hurricane season has officially begun.

Scientists are predicting another year of active storms, making making your home hurricane-proof an even more valuable precaution.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a May 23 forecast that there is an 85% chance of “above normal” activity during this year’s hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

NOAA predicts a total of 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater, of which 8 to 13 are expected to develop into hurricanes, with 4 to 7 of those likely to develop into major Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

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“Severe weather and emergencies can occur at any time, which is why it’s important for individuals and communities to prepare now,” said Eric A. Fuchs, deputy administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, in a statement released along with NOAA’s forecast.

“We are already seeing storms moving across the country that could bring additional dangers, including tornadoes, flooding and hail,” he said. “Taking a proactive approach today to increasingly severe weather conditions can make a difference in how people recover tomorrow.”

Hurricanes are among the costliest natural disasters in the United States, and experts say storm damage is likely to be greater as the storms become more intense.

NOAA said “record-breaking warming of the Atlantic Ocean” is expected to be one of the factors creating favorable conditions for tropical storm formation.

Another forecast, from hurricane researchers at Colorado State University, predicts that the 2024 hurricane season will be “extremely active” due to record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic.

On average, temperatures across the tropical Atlantic will be about 1 degree Celsius (1.5 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than normal in 2024. That might not sound like much, but it’s a big difference, says Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

“Right now, the tropical Atlantic is at a record warmth,” he said, “which means there’s more fuel for storms that are brewing.”

Although air and water conditions may change, residents in storm-prone areas would be wise to consider making home improvements early.

“Now is the time to prepare and make plans,” Klotzbach said. “You don’t want to have to do it at the last minute.”

Projected effects of global warming on hurricane activity include increased coastal flooding due to rising sea levels, more rainfall, and more intense and rapid intensification of storms, according to a study summary from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

“Warming sea surface temperatures could increase tropical storm wind speeds and cause more damage if they make landfall,” wrote the Climate and Energy Solutions Center, a think tank.

According to projections by reinsurance company Swiss Re, projected residential damage from hurricanes has been increasing since the 1970s, partly due to increased hurricane activity and changes in property values ​​caused by population growth, but the increase has been somewhat offset by improved building codes.

The upgrades will help consumers protect one of their most valuable assets, their home, from windstorms and other natural disasters.

Making a home hurricane-proof can be quite costly, but the cost could pay off if hurricanes become more intense due to climate change.

According to home improvement website This Old House, the national average cost to retrofit an entire home with hurricane-resistant windows in 2024 will be $1,128 to $10,293, including installation, or $100 to $500 per window, and that’s just for one project.

A 2022 analysis of hurricane-resistant building by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that strengthening joints between homes’ roofs and walls and tightening the spacing of nails could save homes about $8.1 billion a year in physical damage from storms.

Jeff Ostrowski, a housing analyst at Bankrate, said one of the challenges of retrofitting a home for a storm is that hurricanes are unusual and unpredictable.

“You never know if you’re going to have to deal with a storm surge, high winds or heavy rains. You have to be prepared for all of those at once,” he said.

According to Leslie Chapman Henderson, president and CEO of the nonprofit Federal Alliance for Safe Housing (FLASH), there are two key elements to a home that can help prevent damage from hurricane winds.

Make sure the structural strength between the roof and walls can withstand wind pressure and debris impact. Protect all openings to your home, including doors, windows, and the garage.

“What we’re trying to prevent is a build-up of pressure. It’s like an inflated balloon; if it gets too inflated, it’s going to burst,” she said. “When the wind blows, that’s what happens to your house.”

1. Get an inspector to evaluate your home

Having an inspector look at your home is a good starting point for the project. The inspector will provide you with a report of what areas of your home need to be redone or strengthened to prepare for severe weather.

2. Reinforce the roof

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the average cost to replace a roof in the United States is about $10,000, but the exact cost varies depending on several factors, including the size of the roof.

Fortified, a nonprofit reroofing program that hardens homes against severe weather, offers homeowners planning to reroof their homes guidelines on how to withstand local challenges, said Jennifer Languer, president and founder of Trifecta Construction Solutions, a Florida-based sustainability consulting firm.

“It tells us what we need to do to make the roof stronger,” she said.

If you’re not ready to completely reroof your home, adding caulk or adhesive to reinforce the soffit — the material that connects the edge of the roof to the exterior wall — can reduce the chances of wind or water getting into your attic during a storm, says Chapman Henderson of FLASH. Repairing the soffit and fascia (the horizontal boards that usually run along the outside of the soffit) can cost anywhere between $600 and $6,000, according to Angi.com.

To secure the roof to the walls of existing homes with attics, you can install metal clips or straps that provide a better hold. Exact costs will vary depending on factors such as the size of the home and the scope of the project, but home insurance company Kin says such a retrofit can cost anywhere between $850 and $1,350.

3. Keep windows and doors tightly closed

“Do you have hurricane-resistant windows? If not, can you install them?” says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William LaVais Mortgage.

Chapman-Henderson said if you don’t have the budget to install new hurricane-resistant windows, shutters are a low-cost option to protect windows and other openings.

Shutters vary in material, installation method and price, with removable galvanized steel storm panels being the most affordable option at $5 to $6 per square foot, according to information compiled by FLASH.

Rangel, of Trifecta Construction Solutions, said even if you have impact-resistant windows, it may be worth installing shutters as an extra layer of protection.

Meanwhile, garage doors are “your largest and most vulnerable opening,” Chapman Henderson says. Replacing your entire garage door with a wind- or impact-resistant version can cost anywhere between $2,000 and $9,000, according to FLASH.

Emergency reinforcement can be a low-cost solution: Temporary 2-by-4 wood reinforcements can shore up doors that aren’t storm-resistant. Materials and installation cost about $150. Garage door storm kits can cost up to $750, FLASH data found.

“You can do all these things to fortify your home, but it’s still at the mercy of whatever storm comes your way,” Bankrate’s Ostrowski said.

4. Talk to your insurance company about possible discounts

Fortifying your home against disasters can lead to lower insurance premiums.

Insurers typically take natural disaster risk into account when deciding which properties to insure and at what cost, which has led some to cut back on underwriting in high-risk areas or to sharply raise prices.

Additionally, insurance for existing homes tends to be more expensive than new construction because many older homes have less strict building codes.

If an inspector visits your home and recommends projects to make your home more hurricane-resistant, talk to your insurance agent about which suggestions are most likely to lower your premiums, Ostrowski says.

Insurance Information Institute spokeswoman Loretta Worters said people should keep in mind that the types and amounts of premium reductions offered vary in each state and depend on the risk, a company’s circumstances and the regulatory environment.

Homeowner’s insurance rates are based on measurable risk, and risk mitigation efforts may help reduce risk, but the scientific measurement of catastrophe risk and risk mitigation efforts is still evolving, she said.

“Any premium pricing analysis related to risk mitigation efforts is a matter of degree of risk, not removing risk entirely from insurance,” Worters said.

If the costs of preparing your home for a hurricane are overwhelming, there may be grants, tax credits, and other programs available to help ease the burden.

Chapman-Henderson said some states have grant programs for disaster retrofits.

In Florida, residents may be able to apply for grants of up to $10,000 for approved improvements such as installing shutters, roofs, garage doors and strengthening roof-to-wall joints, she said. Alabama and Louisiana have similar programs.

To learn more, homeowners can search for loans, grants and tax credits available in their state through dsireusa.org, which lists all the financing opportunities and incentives available to help make their homes disaster-proof, Rangel said.

For people with poor credit or who live in states that don’t have matching dollar programs, Chapman Henderson said the Property Assessed Clean Energy Program allows homeowners to finance the upfront costs of qualified improvements to their property and then pay the costs over time through their property tax bills.

Energy-efficient mortgages, also known as green mortgages, may also be worth considering. These loans are intended to help homeowners finance eco-friendly home improvements or directly purchase a home that will help them reduce energy consumption and lower utility bills, but they often have stricter loan limits and require additional information when applying, according to LendingTree.

That may be appropriate for some hurricane-resistance projects, and energy efficiency can go hand in hand with durability, Rangel said.

“Sealing the roof underlayment also helps from an energy standpoint because it seals all the cracks and gaps,” she said, adding that the repairs will keep the roof from coming off the house and prevent water and air leaks.

The same goes for window replacement: “If you replace your windows from single-pane to impact-resistant windows with better energy performance, you’re saving energy,” Rangel says.

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