Five brokerages estimate that net profit for the June quarter could rise between 57% and 209% from the same period last year.
YES Securities estimates the lowest PAT growth rate at 57% to Rs 9,980 crore, while Equirus Securities estimates PAT growth rate at 209% to Rs 2,465 crore.
However, revenue for the April-June 2024 reporting period could fall 6% year-on-year, according to an average estimate from five brokerage firms.
Here’s what analysts expect for Tata Steel in the first quarter:
Equirus Securities
In India, steel shipments are expected to grow 4.8% y/y to 5.03 million tonnes (down 7.2% q/q), while standalone realized profits are expected to remain flat q/q as higher long product prices are offset by weakness in other products. India EBITDA/ton is expected to increase 6.8% q/q to INR 15,839/tonne due to lower coking coal prices. In Europe, EBITDA/ton is expected to be a loss of $30 as losses in the UK business continue, likely offsetting positive contributions from the Netherlands business. Kotak Equities
Standalone steel production is expected to increase 0.3% sequentially (down 6.4% y/y) driven by product mix. Standalone production is expected to increase 3.5% y/y (down 8.5% y/y) to 4.96 million tonnes. India EBITDA/tonne is expected to decrease 9% q/q (down 3.1% y/y) to INR 13,485/tonne, primarily due to lower trade payables sequentially.
In Europe, the company expects an EBITDA loss of $29 per tonne (loss of $39 per tonne in 4Q24) due to higher costs associated with end-of-life assets in the UK.
Motilal Oswal
The Indian business is expected to see volumes normalize in Q1FY25, while the international business is expected to remain stable. The Netherlands is expected to improve with positive EBITDA/ton in Q1FY25. The UK business is expected to be in a loss, leading to a European EBITDA loss.
Commentary on European operations is important: management guidance on ASPs and CoPs across the region should be monitored.
YES Securities
Revenues are expected to grow 0.6% q-o-q (-0.8% y-o-y) to Rs 5,904 crore on higher realised gains.TATA IN expects to report EBITDA margin of 11.0% at Rs 64.9 crore (-4.2% q-o-q, +2.3% y-o-y) on a consolidated basis, driven by lower coking coal costs and stable HRC prices q-o-q.
JM Financial
We expect blended realized profit to increase by INR 500/tonne sequentially due to higher long product prices. Standalone volumes are expected to decrease 4% sequentially to 5.2 million tonnes. EBITDA/tonne is expected to decrease 1.8% sequentially to INR 14,808/tonne.
ETMarkets.com(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. They do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
